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The Singularity Revisited: A Post-SXSW Outlook on People and Technology

As you may recall, the Singularity Theory was a topic at SXSW I was very interested in hearing others discuss. The theory refers to a point in time in our near future where technological progress will become so rapid (exponential) that it makes the future after this point qualitatively different and harder to predict. Furthermore, Ray Kurzweil adds more detail to this definition by claiming that post-singularity innovation will rely upon smarter-than-human (enhanced by machines) minds.

Pretty wild (and controversial) stuff, huh? Talk about the intersection of people and technology!

There are several technologies often mentioned as heading in this direction:

-         Artificial Intelligence

-         Direct Brain-Computer Interfaces

-         Biological Augmentation of the Brain

-         Genetic Engineering

If these technologies reach a threshold level of sophistication, Kurzweil argues that logically it would be reasonable for them to turn around and enhance the human intelligence that created the technology thereby creating a positive feedback loop and fueling exponential innovative growth.

The panel discussion, which had the president of The Singularity Institute itself, did not disappoint. The audience discussion in particular was interesting and posed several difficult questions that were well-navigated by the panel. Two of which included:

A.     Inaccuracies with extrapolation-based predictions (how can you be certain the Singularity will happen?).

B.     Human intelligence is not linear (as there is no one variable you can use to measure it given the complexity of the human thought process) therefore you cannot fully replicate it.

To answer point A simply, yes, there is no certain way to know when/if the singularity were to happen. Extrapolation in predictive modeling is set up in such a way that variance can occur and that those doing the modeling have a certain level of confidence in the range of answers that the model provides. It’s similar to the effect you would get while trying to model singularity at the center of a black hole. Theoretically we can logic out that it exists, but we can’t predict what’s on the other side because the predictive model breaks down and the variance becomes to large to accurately (within reason) determine what happens next.

What I can say is that we are starting to hit that point of exponential technological growth. Modern humans have been around for about 200,000 years. Imagine that as a stack of 800 quarters where each quarter represents 250 years. For 799 of those quarters, we’ve seen technological growth move slowly, but over the past 250 years, that one quarter, we’ve seen:

-         Industrial Revolution  

-         Radio

-         Television                

-         Flight

-         Space Travel

-         Computers

-         Internet

-         Cell Phones 

The list goes on and the metaphor makes it much easier visualize the exponential growth of innovation. There’s no denying that.

As for argument B, it is true that human intelligence is not linear which makes it very difficult to replicate. However, you can tell Google to fetch certain keywords, but Google doesn’t necessarily know why it’s fetching them, why the order of the words is important, what the words mean, or why your searching for them. But, imagine if you could have access to Google’s search base without needing access to a peripheral devices like computers or smartphones. Rather, the information is saved within your enhanced brain. Seem far-fetched? Possibly, but we are already in the process of merging hyper-intelligent tools with organic interfaces. Cochlear implants are one example and recently neuroscientists were able to connect to individual neurons using semi-conductor tubes.

So what does this mean? Where are we headed? Is this all crazy talk? Is my head going to explode? Is the Singularity as Kurzweil defines it a cult?

It’s tough to say. But, there is clear evidence that innovation is continuing to evolve at an exponential rate. And, I for one am thankful that I’ll be around to see what happens after the singularity.

What do you think? Continue the conversation with @dfcbfirestarter on twitter or within the comments below…